Agricultural Output and Insecurity in Nigeria

The study investigated the effect of insecurity on Agricultural output in Nigeria from 1990-2022. Secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin of 2021 was used for the study. The main analytical techniques used were the unit root tests, con- integration and error correction mechanism. The outcome of the unit root tests revealed that all the series are all stationery at I (I). This necessitated the use of error correction mechanism (ECM) for data estimation. Normality test, auto correlation test, serial correlation test and heteroskedasticity test were also carried out. These tests proved that the model employed was fit. The Co-integration results showed there is stable long run relationship between variables used in the model. The findings from the short run estimation (ECM) revealed that internal security expenditure exert positive and significant impact on agricultural output, while Nigeria crime rate and Nigeria terrorism index exert a negative and significant impact on agriculture output in Nigeria. Therefore, the study concludes that insecurity impacts negatively on agriculture output in Nigeria. It is recommended that government increases investment in the real sectors of agriculture and manufacturing towards the creation of employment to absorb the growing population of unemployed active youth to help reduce their involvement in various crimes and social vices. The study further recommended the need to strengthen the military and Para military sectors to secure nation’s internal and external borders against the influx of terrorists to increase domestic investment as well as attract foreign direct investment into the agricultural sector of Nigeria.