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Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?

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Abstract

When constrained by the zero lower bound, some central banks have communicated a threshold that must be met before short-term interest rates would be permitted to rise. Simulation results for Canada show that forward guidance that is conditional on achieving a price-level threshold can theoretically raise demand and inflation expectations by significantly more than unemployment thresholds. This superior performance is attributable to the fact that the price-level threshold depends on past inflation outcomes. In practice, however, history-dependent thresholds such as this might be more challenging for central banks to communicate.

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  • Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison, 2014. "Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2014(Autumn), pages 12-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2014:y:2014:i:autumn14:p:12-22
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    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/boc-review-autumn14-mendes.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Allen & Timothy Grieder & Brian Peterson & Tom Roberts, 2016. "The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10," Staff Working Papers 16-41, Bank of Canada.
    2. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Lori Rennison, 2015. "Forward Guidance at the Effective Lower Bound: International Experience," Discussion Papers 15-15, Bank of Canada.
    3. Thomas J Carter & Rhys Mendes & Lawrence L Schembri, 2018. "Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    5. Thomas J. Carter & Rhys R. Mendes, 2020. "The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective," Discussion Papers 2020-1, Bank of Canada.
    6. Allen, Jason & Grieder, Timothy & Peterson, Brian & Roberts, Tom, 2020. "The impact of macroprudential housing finance tools in canada," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Rhys R. Mendes, 2015. "The Optimal Level of the Inflation Target: A Selective Review of the Literature and Outstanding Issues," Discussion Papers 15-8, Bank of Canada.
    8. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    9. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2021. "The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations," Discussion Papers 2021-13, Bank of Canada.
    10. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.

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