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Defending the nation, securing the economy

Author

Listed:
  • Iulia-Cristina Iuga

    (“1 Decembrie 1918†University of Alba Iulia)

  • Adela Socol

    (“1 Decembrie 1918†University of Alba Iulia)

Abstract

Literature on the effects of military expenses and GDP is mixed, although a significant body of research supports the hypothesis that military expenses positively impact GDP. To contribute to the literature, this article analyses whether military expenditures influenced GDP in 27 European Union member countries from 1998 to 2021 by studying two clusters specific to the analysed countries: NATO and non-NATO countries. The way in which military expenditures affect GDP has been analysed using both the classic static models for panel data (pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, feasible generalized least squares, panel corrected standard errors, Poisson pseudomaximum likelihood regression) as well as by applying dynamic panel model system GMM, reverse causality, and half-panel jackknife regression models, with unemployment and inflation selected as control variables. The findings indicate that the current values of military expenditures positively influence GDP in both clusters, while past values of military expenditures positively influence GDP in the NATO EU countries and negatively affect GDP in the non-NATO EU countries. There are several key differences between NATO EU members and non-NATO EU members, particularly in regard to their security commitments and defence spending. NATO members are part of a mutual defence pact, agreeing to the principle of collective defence, which also impacts public defence policies and public budgets. This paper offers practical value to policymakers, stakeholders, and academicians. In addition, it has two significant political implications. First, it highlights the role of military expenditures as a catalyst for economic growth but does not underestimate the dangers of using military spending as a pretext to stimulate employment. Second, it establishes the optimal proportion of military expenditures required to fulfil two essential targets of national and European policies – security and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Iulia-Cristina Iuga & Adela Socol, 2023. "Defending the nation, securing the economy," E&M Economics and Management, Technical University of Liberec, Faculty of Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 17-37, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbl:journl:v:26:y:2023:i:4:p:17-37
    DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2023-4-002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3586-3606, January.
    3. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Siew Ling Yew, 2018. "The effect of military expenditure on growth: an empirical synthesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1357-1387, November.
    4. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    5. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    6. Michael Gerace, 2002. "US Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Spectral Methods," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; military spending; unemployment; inflation; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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