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How to hedge extreme risk of natural gas in multivariate semiparametric value-at-risk portfolio?

Author

Listed:
  • Dejan Zivkov

    (University of Novi Sad)

  • Boris Kuzman

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics)

  • Jonel Subic

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have caused huge price changes in the natural gas market. This paper tries to minimise the extreme risk of natural gas, making two six-asset portfolios, where gas is combined with five developed and emerging European stock indices. We observe extreme risk from the aspect of classical parametric Value-at-Risk measure, but we also propose a new approach and optimise portfolios with semiparametric VaR as a target. Estimating the equicorrelation of the two portfolios, we determine that the emerging indices portfolio has a much lower level of integration, which is good for portfolio construction. Additionally, we divide the full sample into the pre-crisis and crisis periods to assess how portfolios look in the two intrinsically different subsamples. According to the results, both portfolios with the developed and emerging stock indices minimise extreme risk very well, but the latter portfolio is better. In the pre-crisis period, this advantage amounts to around 6% in the min-VaR portfolio and 3.5% in the min-mVaR portfolio. However, in the crisis period, the third and fourth moments come to the fore, meaning that hedging results increase significantly in favour of the emerging indices portfolios. In other words, the min-VaR and min-mVaR results of the emerging indices portfolio are better in amounts of more than 14% and 17%, respectively, vis-a-vis portfolios with the developed stock indices. We recommend using the semiparametric VaR metric because it is far more accurate and unbiased compared to the classical VaR since it considers all the key features of portfolio distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejan Zivkov & Boris Kuzman & Jonel Subic, 2023. "How to hedge extreme risk of natural gas in multivariate semiparametric value-at-risk portfolio?," E&M Economics and Management, Technical University of Liberec, Faculty of Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 128-144, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbl:journl:v:26:y:2023:i:3:p:128-144
    DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2023-3-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Araújo Santos, Paulo & Al-Hassan, Abdullah, 2013. "Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 318-334.
    3. António Brandão & Joana Pinho & Joana Resende & Paula Sarmento & Isabel Soares, 2016. "Welfare effects of unbundling under different regulatory regimes in natural gas markets," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(2), pages 99-127, August.
    4. Cui, Jinxin & Goh, Mark & Zou, Huiwen, 2021. "Coherence, extreme risk spillovers, and dynamic linkages between oil and China’s commodity futures markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme risk of gas; minimum VaR and mVaR portfolio optimisation; DECO-DCC-GJR-GARCH model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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