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Implementation of the Logit Model to the Hypothesis for Rational Expectations

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  • Petja Ivanova
  • Dejan Lazarov

Abstract

The article shows the possibility for implementing the Logit method as an alternative approach, which allows avoiding a great part of the difficulties connected with the construction and estimation of the models with rational expectations. The idea is to use the Logit method for estimating “the degree of adequacy” of the public in respect of the inflation behaviour in Bulgaria during the period 1993-2000. In the model, expectations are defined as rational, when the subjective probabilities of the economic agents compared to the full set of possible results, are really reflecting the objective conditional mathematical probabilities, based on the available information at a defined moment. By specifying a variable of reliability and by comparing its dynamics with the one of inflation, the Logit method allows to test the validity of the hypothesis for rational expectations by means of the principle of correlation. Furthermore the model of inflation and its interaction with the individual solutions is not estimated directly but this is done in respect of the effect of this interaction. The results obtained allow to make conclusions in respect of the structure of the information basis and the process of “training” when forming rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Petja Ivanova & Dejan Lazarov, 2001. "Implementation of the Logit Model to the Hypothesis for Rational Expectations," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 46-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2001:i:3:p:46-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    3. Frydman, Roman, 1982. "Towards an Understanding of Market Processes: Individual Expectations, Learning, and Convergence to Rational Expectations Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 652-668, September.
    4. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    6. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-1160, September.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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