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Modeling Migration Changes According To Alternative Scenarios in the Context of the Global COVID-19 Pandemic: The Example of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Maslii
  • Maryna Demianchuk
  • Igor Britchenko
  • Maksym Bezpartochnyi

Abstract

Global processes significantly affect the mobility of the population. In the context of geopolitical transformation, globalization and quarantine restrictions of Covid-19, it is important to predict the development of the migration movement of countries that are developing. Therefore, the article is aimed at modelling migration changes according to alternative scenarios using the example of Ukraine. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is formed by a number of scientific works of leading scientists from different countries, statistical information on migration processes and socio-economic indicators of Ukraine’s development, economic, mathematical and scenario methods. In the course of the study, the main factors were identified that more affect the migration processes of Ukraine, taking into account the trends in the impact of Covid-19 on them. These include population size, life expectancy, GDP per capita, average monthly wages, and the volume of remittances from individuals to Ukraine. With the help of correlation-regression analysis, a multivariate econometric model of migration growth (reduction) has been built. This made it possible to study the absolute and relative influence of factors on the magnitude of the migration increase (decrease), determine the potential reserves for its increase (decrease), evaluate them using a comparative analysis and carry out predictive calculations of the volume of migration increase (decrease) in Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Maslii & Maryna Demianchuk & Igor Britchenko & Maksym Bezpartochnyi, 2022. "Modeling Migration Changes According To Alternative Scenarios in the Context of the Global COVID-19 Pandemic: The Example of Ukraine," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 58-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2022:i:1:p:58-71
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    File URL: https://www.iki.bas.bg/Journals/EconomicStudies/2022/2022-1/04_Britchenko-4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borjas, G.J., 1999. "Economic Research on the Determinants of Immigration. Lesons for the European Union," Papers 438, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens," World Bank Publications - Reports 33634, The World Bank Group.
    3. Katz, Eliakim & Stark, Oded, 1984. "Migration and Asymmetric Information: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 533-534, June.
    4. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Mustafa Murat Yucesahin, 2020. "Coronavirus and Migration: Analysis of Human Mobility and the Spread of Covid-19," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Michael McAleer, 2020. "Prevention Is Better Than the Cure: Risk Management of COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-5, March.
    6. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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