Structural Convergence of Bulgarian Foreign Trade and Exports to the Euro Area

The study focuses on the structural convergence of foreign trade, and in particular of Bulgaria’s exports to the Euro area. By interpreting and systematising theoretical and empirical models, frequently applied methods for analysing the real and structural convergence of exports and imports are summarised. Leading trends, similarities and differences in the dynamics of exports, imports and foreign trade balance of Bulgaria, the Euro area and a group of CEE countries during the period 2002-2018 are highlighted. The values of dissimilarity index by J. Von Hagen and J. Traistaru method and divergence index by C. Van de Coeving method, by commodity groups and the Bulgarian exports as a whole in 2002-2018, are determined. In this regard, export commodity groups are derived, on which Bulgaria has reached a coincidence, convergence or divergence with the similar structural parameters of the Euro area exports (as a whole), entered as reference values. It is concluded that there is a trend of increasing structural convergence of Bulgaria’s exports to the Euro area exports in recent years, with greater similarities in some commodity groups. In the study, traditional methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, methods of descriptive and comparative analysis, structural ?-convergence methods are used.