IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2020i3p3-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Implications of the Fight against COVID-19: First Estimates, Forecasts, and Conclusions

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Yotzov
  • Daniela Bobeva
  • Pobeda Loukanova
  • Nedialko Nestorov

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive spike in uncertainty all over the world. Bulgaria is no exception. Major uncertainties surround almost every aspect of human life: the infectiousness, prevalence, and lethality of the virus; the capacity of healthcare systems to meet the challenge; how long it will take to develop ‘herd immunity’; how long and how strong should social distancing be; how long it will take to develop and deploy safe, effective vaccines etc. On top of all this comes the economic uncertainty. There is no doubt the pandemic is having immediately visible effects on economic activity. The rapid contraction in economic activity, the collapse of trade, and the dramatic increase in the unemployment rate are without precedent. Our goal here is to assess near-term macroeconomic effects of these COVID-induced uncertainties. To this end we look at the measures taken worldwide and in the EU in particular, focusing on Bulgaria’s main trading partners. We develop three different scenarios for the economic development by the end of 2020 based on different assumptions with regard to the severity of the external shock as well as the duration of the social distancing.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Yotzov & Daniela Bobeva & Pobeda Loukanova & Nedialko Nestorov, 2020. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Fight against COVID-19: First Estimates, Forecasts, and Conclusions," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2020:i:3:p:3-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iki.bas.bg/Journals/EconomicStudies/2020/2020-3/1_Victor_f-f.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galya Taseva, 2023. "Dynamics of the debt burden of non-financial enterprises in Bulgaria during the period 2016-2020," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 380-407.
    2. Dimitar Zlatinov & Ilia Atanasov, 2021. "Absolute and Conditional Convergence: A Story about Convergence Clubs and Divergence in the EU," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 39-55.
    3. Mariella Nenova, 2022. "Households’ Consumption Pattern and Saving – Evidence for the First Year of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 3-22.
    4. Lorenzo Pratici & Phillip McMinn Singer, 2021. "COVID-19 Vaccination: What Do We Expect for the Future? A Systematic Literature Review of Social Science Publications in the First Year of the Pandemic (2020–2021)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Tsvetomir Tsvetkov & Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Anti-Crisis Macroeconomic Policy in the Conditions of COVID-19 in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 107-130.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2020:i:3:p:3-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.