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Scenario Analysis of the Assessment of the Rail Transport Impact on the Economic Growth (on the Example of Ukraine)

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  • Olha Kravchenko

Abstract

In the modern world, efficient transport infrastructure is one of the main factors ensuring economic growth in both countries and macro-regions. In this context, of particular interest are studies in states whose economies are in a state of crisis and are characterized by a high uncertainty of development parameters. To this aim, the influence of the rail transport on the economy of Ukraine was studied. The importance of Ukrainian railways in the system of international transport and communication links between the countries of Eurasia is considered. The use of scenario simulation to study the prospects for the development of the rail transport in conditions of high uncertainty has been substantiated. A SWOT analysis was performed, based on the results of which scenarios were constructed for rail transport in Ukraine. Scenario analysis showed that in the context of a systemic economic crisis, the rail transport can influence not the process of economic growth in the country, but its intensity, acting as a factor of acceleration or deceleration. Improvement of the situation is possible when developing a set of measures aimed primarily at improving the internal environment of rail transport.

Suggested Citation

  • Olha Kravchenko, 2020. "Scenario Analysis of the Assessment of the Rail Transport Impact on the Economic Growth (on the Example of Ukraine)," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 114-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2020:i:1:p:114-135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. César Calderón & Enrique Moral‐Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, March.
    2. Stewart, James, 2010. "The UK National Infrastructure Plan 2010," EIB Papers 6/2010, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    3. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadiia Bohomolova & Vitalina Ovrutska, 2020. "Conceptual foundations for the formation of economically feasible costs in railway transport enterprises," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 11(1), pages 141-147, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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