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Hysteresis, Structural Shocks and Common Trends in Labor Market: Consequence for Ukraine

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  • Marianna Oliskevych

Abstract

This article provides an econometric analysis of the effects of technology shocks, labor demand shocks, labor supply shocks and wages shocks on the labor market in Ukraine. Structural vector autoregressive error correction model is formed on macroeconomic data for 2002-2014. The presence of hysteresis in unemployment is revealed. Three common trends are defined which determine the behavior of labor productivity, employment, unemployment rate and real wages. It is shown that only technological shocks have a positive long-term impact on productivity, although in the short run positive changes can be caused by positive shocks of wages and labor supply. The unemployment rate in the long run significantly reduces due to technological shocks and demand shocks, while supply shocks lead to its growth. Technological shocks and labor demand shocks are the source of positive change in the number of employed and real wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Oliskevych, 2015. "Hysteresis, Structural Shocks and Common Trends in Labor Market: Consequence for Ukraine," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 120-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2015:i:4:p:120-137
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Iryna Lukianenko & Marianna Oliskevych, 2017. "Evidence of Asymmetries and Nonlinearity of Unemployment and Labour Force Participation Rate in Ukraine," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 578-601.
    2. Marianna Oliskevych & Galyna Beregova & Viktor Tokarchuk, 2018. "Fuel Consumption in Ukraine: Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 58-63.
    3. Marianna Oliskevych & Iryna Lukianenko, 2020. "European unemployment nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles: Markov switching approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 375-401.
    4. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:633:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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