Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism in Borovets

Nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impact of climate change, which will pose challenges to many economic sectors, including tourism. Favourable weather conditions and especially snow availability and depth are crucial to visitor satisfaction and are a fundamental factor for the development of winter tourism. The purpose of this paper is to outline the current sensitivity and future economic impacts of climate change on winter tourism in one of the major Bulgarian ski resorts – Borovets. The paper is structured as follows: firstly, the past and present of winter tourism in Bulgaria is presented. Secondly, the future development with climate change is analyzed in detail. The basis of climatological part of the study is the regional climate model REMO. The scenario simulation (2001-2050) is based on emission scenario A1B and snow models for different heights of Borovets resort. The economic meaning of climate changes is assessed by regression analyses (ARIMA models) that study the relationship between tourist numbers and meteorological parameters and make forecasts for the period 2021-2050. The quantitative analysis has been supplemented by qualitative research, based on the case study methods. The paper describes how a representative local hotel perceives its dependence on weather and climatic conditions. The relative regional vulnerability is assessed too. Finally, recommendations for policy makers concerning the adaptation to climate change are outlined.