The effect of noise on recurrent diagrams of energy consumption of a metallurgical enterprise

The most common problem faced by modern metallurgical enterprises is the improvement of their energy efficiency, which is based on the management of energy-saving projects. The paper deals with the analysis of the impact of external noise on recurrent diagrams based on short-term time series of daily energy consumption of a metallurgical enterprise. The object of this study is short time series of energy consumption of a metallurgical enterprise. The time series of energy consumption of PJSC «Electrometallurgical Plant «Dniprospetsstal» (Ukraine) for 2018–2021 were used as data. The subject of the study is the method of recurrent diagrams of short time series.In the process of research, methods of short time series analysis based on recurrent analysis were used to study the characteristics of the system state on the example of a metallurgical enterprise. An analysis of the influence of external noise on recurrent diagrams of short-term chaotic time series was carried out using the developed software in the Matlab environment for constructing recurrent diagrams of energy consumption of a metallurgical enterprise.The following tasks were solved in the work: software was developed for constructing recurrent diagrams in the Matlab package with the possibility of analyzing changes in the magnitude of quantitative indicators of recurrent diagrams under the influence of different levels of noise in time series.The obtained results are recommended to be used to characterize the state of the system and analyze the influence of external noise. The practical value of the performed work is determined by the proven usefulness of recurrent analysis for estimating electricity consumption and the improvement of modeling of this process, which will allow increasing the accuracy of forecasting future dynamics verified by empirical data.