IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/baq/jetart/v1y2023i13p74-85.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting development trends in the information technology industry using fuzzy logic

Author

Listed:
  • Oleksii Dudnyk

    (Odessа Polytechnic National University)

  • Zoia Sokolovska

    (Odessа Polytechnic National University)

Abstract

The IT industry occupies a significant place in the economy of the world. Trends in its development directly affect changes in various sectors of the economy. This paper considers the dynamics of IT industry under conditions of increased entropy of the functioning environment caused by crises, military conflicts, non-standard events. The mathematical basis of the study is an apparatus of fuzzy logic. The proposed technique for analyzing and forecasting the state and dynamics of the IT sector makes it possible to take into account the influences of a set of factors of different nature and direction of action, which contributes to obtaining a reasonable assessment under conditions of inaccurate information. The software platform for implementing the methodology is the authentically designed fuzzy expert system (ES) FuzzyKIDE. The conceptual foundations of the platform structure have been defined. A modification of the fuzzy inference mechanism has been proposed, which, unlike existing samples, makes it possible to eliminate saving intermediate results and reduces the load on the database. The composition and structure of the knowledge base (KB) for ES have been proposed. Fuzzy rules are based on predetermined relationships between key factors of influence. The technology of ES operation is represented using simulated scenarios with obtaining predictive results. The analysis of the final data of expert consultations proves the ES operability, providing for the possibility of KB significant expansion in the process of industrial operation. The use of ES is aimed at forming a holistic view of possible directions of IT sector development. Maintaining the actual state of ES KB is a condition for early warning of the emergent negative/crisis phenomena. The FuzzyKIDE expert consulting system is proposed as a tool to support management decision-making based on the analysis and forecasting of the state and dynamics of IT sector under conditions of high uncertainty

Suggested Citation

  • Oleksii Dudnyk & Zoia Sokolovska, 2023. "Forecasting development trends in the information technology industry using fuzzy logic," Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER, vol. 1(13(121)), pages 74-85, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:baq:jetart:v:1:y:2023:i:13:p:74-85
    DOI: 10.15587/1729-4061.2023.267906
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.uran.ua/eejet/article/view/267906/269922
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.15587/1729-4061.2023.267906?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:baq:jetart:v:1:y:2023:i:13:p:74-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iryna Prudius (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.uran.ua/eejet/issue/archive .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.