IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bal/journl/2256-074220239316.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis Of Trends In The Development Of The Pharmaceutical Market Of Ukraine In 2007–2021

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Mashchenko

    (Classic Private University, Ukraine)

  • Lyudmila Serhieieva

    (Classic Private University, Ukraine)

  • Іhor Shyshka

    (Classic Private University, Ukraine)

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the development trends in the retail market for pharmaceuticals in the national aspect for the period 2007-2021 and to identify changes in the trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology. The article analyses the main indicators of the development of the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine: sales volumes in the pharmacy network in value and physical terms for the period 2007-2021. Periods of growth at different speeds were identified (2007-2012; 2013-2015 and 2016-2019) using methods of regression analysis are used, namely: development of trend models with an assessment of their quality based on the calculation of the coefficient of determination R. Results. The paper conducts a trend analysis of the total monetary revenue in the pharmaceutical retail market of Ukraine; conducts an analysis of the volume of sales in kind and the dynamics of the average price per package; makes a forecast of the dynamics in the pharmaceutical retail market of Ukraine for 2020 and 2021. It also identifies changes in trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and offers measures for further development of the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine. Dynamics models were created for each period and a forecast for 2020-2021 was made on the basis of the model for the last period. The impact of the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic was analysed, a decrease in sales volume in April 2020 was estimated (by 45.9% compared to the forecast), it was found that within 6 months the dynamics of the market recovered, which indicates the high adaptive properties of the system. Practical implications. A comparison of sales volume dynamics in Ukraine and the world for 15 years from 2007 to 2021 showed that sales volume in Ukraine is growing five times faster than in the world as a whole. This proves that in the pharmaceutical industry both manufacturers and pharmacy chains have been making excessive profits at the expense of consumers. Value/originality. Such a situation in the pharmaceutical industry requires the development of measures at the state level to curb the growth of prices and increase transparency in their formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Mashchenko & Lyudmila Serhieieva & Іhor Shyshka, 2023. "Analysis Of Trends In The Development Of The Pharmaceutical Market Of Ukraine In 2007–2021," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 9(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:bal:journl:2256-0742:2023:9:3:16
    DOI: 10.30525/2256-0742/2023-9-3-145-150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.baltijapublishing.lv/index.php/issue/article/view/2139/2144
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.baltijapublishing.lv/index.php/issue/article/view/2139
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30525/2256-0742/2023-9-3-145-150?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pharmaceutical market; pharmaceutical industry; pharmacy chain; transparency; trend model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bal:journl:2256-0742:2023:9:3:16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anita Jankovska (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.