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Analysis Of The Marriages And Divorces Seasonality In Romania Compared To Bacau County During 2010-2013

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  • Eugenia Harja

Abstract

It is known that the number of marriages concluded in general in a geographic area follows a cyclical trend due primarily to religious factors. In this study we wanted to test whether this assumption is maintained in the past four years. On the other hand, we wanted to look at the indices of seasonality in Romania compared to those calculated for Bacau County to see if there are significant differences. The same aspects were analyzed for the divorce evolutions, to identify whether there is a seasonal trend in this case as well. After applying the methods of arithmetic mean and the mobile averages, there were calculated the seasonality indices and concluded that marriages are clearly cyclical developments every 12 months, with a peak in the third quarter, respectively in August, when the number is 3,5 times higher than the monthly average yearly in Bacau County and 2,3 times for Romania. In the case of divorces, the evolution is oscillatory, but without identifying a seasonal component. The average monthly number of divorces per 100 marriages is 29 in Romania and 36 in Bacau, with a maximum of 202 in the county of Bacau, observed in March 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenia Harja, 2014. "Analysis Of The Marriages And Divorces Seasonality In Romania Compared To Bacau County During 2010-2013," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 19.
    • Handle: RePEc:bac:fsecub:14-19-04
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    File URL: http://sceco.ub.ro/DATABASE/repec/pdf/2014/20141904.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oana Ancuta Stangaciu & Eugenia Harja, 2014. "Gender Demographic Disparities In Bacau County," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    marriage; divorce; mobile average; seasonality indices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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