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Russia-Ukraine War and Price Volatility of Global Commodities - The Role of Public Sentiments

Author

Listed:
  • Khadijat A. Azeez
  • Victor O. Hambolu
  • Andy T. Okwu
  • Bukunmi A. Agboola

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria)

Abstract

We analysed how public sentiments have affected global commodity market volatility during the Russia-Ukraine war. Using principal component analysis, we created a sentiments index from 30 carefully selected Google trends search keywords related to the war. We tested the predictability of the sentiments index against market volatility. Our results show that while public sentiments increase commodity market volatility, incorporating the sentiment index into our predictive model significantly improves its precision.

Suggested Citation

  • Khadijat A. Azeez & Victor O. Hambolu & Andy T. Okwu & Bukunmi A. Agboola, 2024. "Russia-Ukraine War and Price Volatility of Global Commodities - The Role of Public Sentiments," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:101
    DOI: 2024/07/10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
    4. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public sentiments; Commodity market; Volatility; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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