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Medium-Term Forecast Of Tourism Activity In Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Kozic

    (Institute for tourism)

Abstract

Given the exceptional significance of tourism for Croatian national economy, this paper assesses the medium-term potential of tourism activity in Croatia. In this regard, the Box-Jenkins methodology of univariate forecasting has been applied and then combined in a relatively innovative manner by mathematical programming in order to generate the forecast of tourism activity in the next five years. On the one hand, this paper demonstrates a simple but exact technique of combining the univariate models for obtaining multivariate generated forecast, while on the other hand the figures of tourism activity in the forthcoming period can be considered a concrete contribution to the formation of analytical background for economic policy and managerial decision-making. The author concludes that moderate growth of tourism activity in Croatia can be expected in the next five years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Kozic, 2018. "Medium-Term Forecast Of Tourism Activity In Croatia," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 27(2), pages 419-437, december.
    • Handle: RePEc:avo:emipdu:v:27:y:2018:i:2:p:419-437
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    File URL: https://hrcak.srce.hr/clanak/311706
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inbound tourism; medium-term forecasting; Box-Jenkins methodology; mathematical programming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development

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