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Macroeconomic Effects of the European Monetary Union: A Counterfactual Analysis

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  • Constantin Colonescu

Abstract

This is an empirical study on the effects of adopting a common currency, the euro, on a country’s GDP, inflation rate, and public debt. It uses a synthetic counterfactual method, which predicts how the economy of a euro area member country would perform if, hypothetically, the country did not join the euro area. The results show that there is no generally positive or negative effect of using a common currency, but individual countries fare differently in different periods. A novelty in this paper is determining confidence intervals in the counterfactual method. Some examples concern Greece.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantin Colonescu, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of the European Monetary Union: A Counterfactual Analysis," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 3(2), pages 171-186, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ate:journl:ajbev3i2-5
    DOI: 10.30958/ajbe.3.2.5
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory T. Papanikos, 2022. "Greece in the Eurozone: An Evaluation of the First Two Decades," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 8(2), pages 177-192, April.
    2. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/060, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "Mitigating the Macroeconomic Impact of Severe Natural Disasters in Africa: Policy Synergies," Working Papers 21/094, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).

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