An Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Banks Profitability in Malaysia for the Period 1995-2011

This paper investigates the macroeconomics factors that stimulate banks’ profitability. A standard regression model is used to identify macroeconomics determinants that significantly contribute to profitability, expressed through return on assets (ROA), of commercial banks in Malaysia. The determinant factors under consideration are real gross domestic product growth, inflation (expressed through consumer price index), and real interest rates. The paper incorporates seven banks, namely, CIMB, Public Bank, Maybank, Affin Bank, RHB Bank, Alliance Bank and Hong Leong Bank for the period 1995 to 2011. In order to present research in most accurate way, the paper looked into the relationship between profitability of all banks (expressed through mean of ROAs), as well as every single individual bank, with mentioned macroeconomic determinants. Model demonstrated overall significance for mean of all banks, and three individual banks, namely, Maybank, Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank. Findings show that for mean of all banks, as well as Maybank, Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank, real GDP is significant and have positive relationship with confidence level of 1% and 5%. This paper illustrated that in Malaysian case, inflation (CPI) is not significant for mean of all banks and Maybank. On the contrary, for Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank inflation (CPI) is significant, with negative relationship. Lastly, the outcomes of this paper exemplified that in Malaysia real interest rate has no relation with banks’ profitability. From the empirical estimation, it is suggested that for the banks’ profitability the growth of gross domestic product must be in place in order to stimulate lending and borrowing activities. In addition, it is proposed that for the banking sector in order to preserve on profitability, the anticipation of inflation must be in place to shelter revenue and reduce cost of the banks.