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Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns in Ghana: Any Causal Link?

Author

Listed:
  • Haruna Issahaku
  • Yazidu Ustarz
  • Paul Bata Domanban

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to examine the existence of causality between macroeconomic variables and stock returns in Ghana. The study employs monthly time series data spanning the period January 1995 to December 2010. Unit root test is performed using ADF, PP and KPSS tests. Then, Vector Error Correction (VECM) model is used to establish long-run and short-run relationship between stock performance and macroeconomic variables. In order to determine the existence or otherwise of causality, the Granger Causality tests is performed. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition are used to assess the stability of the relationship between stock returns and macroeconomic variables over time. The study reveals that a significant long run relationship exists between stock returns and inflation, money supply and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In the short-run, a significant relationship exists between stock returns and macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation and money supply. In the short-run the relationship between stock returns and FDI is only imaginary. Our VECM coefficient shows that it takes approximately 20 months for the stock market to fully adjust to equilibrium position in case a macroeconomic shock occurs. Lastly, a causal relationship running from inflation and exchange rate to stock returns has been established. Then also, a causal relationship running from stock returns to money supply, interest rate and FDI has also been revealed. The findings imply that arbitrage profit opportunities exist in the Ghana stock market contrary to the dictates of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). In terms of original value,among the studies done on the topic in Ghana so far, this is the only study that incorporates dividend in the computation of returns on the Ghana Stock Exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Haruna Issahaku & Yazidu Ustarz & Paul Bata Domanban, 2013. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns in Ghana: Any Causal Link?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(8), pages 1044-1062.
  • Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:v:3:y:2013:i:8:p:1044-1062:id:1070
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    Cited by:

    1. Canh P. Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh D. Su & Felicia H. L. Chong, 2022. "Determinants of stock market returns in emerging markets: The linkage between institutional quality and macro liquidity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4472-4486, October.
    2. Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero & Sunday Mlanga, 2019. "Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Business and Management Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 34-44, June.
    3. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility and Stock Prices Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria, 1986-2012," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-4.
    4. Anthony E. Ageme, 2020. "“Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Development and Banking System Liquidity in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(7), pages 107-112, July.
    5. Joseph Emmanuel Tetteh & Anthony Amoah & Deodat Emilson Adenutsi, 2019. "Drivers of Stock Market Returns in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Selected Countries," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 191-208, September.
    6. Donald A. Otieno & Rose W. Ngugi & Peter W. Muriu, 2019. "The impact of inflation rate on stock market returns: evidence from Kenya," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 73-90, January.
    7. Shada Almuwallad, 0000. "Exploring the Dynamics: Granger Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Prices Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis: Evidence From The FTSE All-Share Index," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14416316, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    8. Ruqayya Aljifri, 2020. "The Macroeconomy, Oil and the Stock Market: A Multiple Equation Time Series Analysis of Saudi Arabia," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-27, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    9. David UMORU & Alexander Olawumi DABOR, 2019. "Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Factors And Stock Returns In Nigeria," Management Strategies Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 43(1), pages 38-46.
    10. Dodig,Ante, 2020. "Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Capital Markets Performance in Selected Southeastern European Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9323, The World Bank.
    11. Yakubu Awudu Sare & Seyram Pearl Kumah & Andrews Salakpi, 2014. "Market Reaction To Dividend Initiation Announcements on the Ghana Stock Exchange: The Case of Industrial Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 440-450, April.

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