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Canada: The Inflation Irrelevance Proposition

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  • Samih Antoine Azar

    (Full Professor, Faculty of Business Administration & Economics, Haigazian University, Mexique Street, Kantari, Beirut, Lebanon)

Abstract

The underlying thesis is that inflation does not impact in a significant way stock returns. A stronger thesis is that both domestic and foreign inflation rates are neutral to stock returns. This joint hypothesis is tested for Canada, using 5 theoretical models that describe the determinants of Canadian stock returns. These models range from the most stripped one to the least constrained. All 5 models produce evidence of the strong inflation irrelevance hypothesis for the two key variables, Canadian and foreign (US) inflation rates. Naturally, the largest theoretical model is to be selected for inference purposes. This model includes 12 explanatory variables: 2 inflation rates, 2 proxies for earnings, 2 local duration effects, 2 foreign (US) duration effects, the Canadian/US dollar foreign exchange rate, the price of oil, and two categorical variables that pick up the effect of foreign (US) stock markets. The results show that the model provides sign and size effects in conformity with expectations from the theoretical macroeconomic interrelationships. Hence, the paper, besides documenting inflation neutrality, models in a meaningful manner the determinants of the stock market. All in all the empirical results are largely supportive.

Suggested Citation

  • Samih Antoine Azar, 2022. "Canada: The Inflation Irrelevance Proposition," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 8(4), pages 104-111, 12-2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arp:ijefrr:2022:p:104-111
    DOI: 10.32861/ijefr.84.104.111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    2. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Johannes A. Schwarzer, 2018. "Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the "Cruel Dilemma"," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 195-210, Winter.
    4. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samih Antoine Azar, 2022. "Japan and the United Kingdom: The Inflation Irrelevance Proposition," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 8(4), pages 123-128, 12-2022.

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