Health and federal budgetary effects of increasing access to antiretroviral medications for HIV by expanding medicaid

Objectives. This study modeled the health and federal fiscal effects of expanding Medicaid for HIV-infected people to improve access to highly active antiretroviral therapy. Methods. A disease state model of the US HIV epidemic, with and without Medicaid expansion, was used. Eligibility required a CD4 cell count less than 500/mm3 or viral load greater than 10 000, absent or inadequate medication insurance, and annual income less than $10 000. Two benefits were modeled, "full" and "limited" (medications, outpatient care). Federal spending for Medicaid, Medicare, AIDS Drug Assistance Program, Supplemental Security Income, and Social Security Disability Insurance were assessed. Results. An estimated 38 000 individuals would enroll in a Medicaid HIV expansion. Over 5 years, expansion would prevent an estimated 13 000 AIDS diagnoses and 2600 deaths and add 5816 years of life. Net federal costs for all programs are $739 million (full benefits) and $480 million (limited benefits); for Medicaid alone, the costs are $1.43 and $1.17 billion, respectively. Results were sensitive to awareness of serostatus, highly active antiretroviral therapy cost, and participation rate. Strategies for federal cost neutrality include Medicaid HIV drug price reductions as low as 9% and private insurance buy-ins. Conclusions. Expansion of the Medicaid eligibility to increase access to antiretroviral therapy would have substantial health benefits at affordable costs.