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Smoking prevalence in 2010: Why the healthy people goal is unattainable

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  • Mendez, D.
  • Warner, K.E.

Abstract

Objectives. This study examined the changes in smoking initiation and cessation needed to realize the Healthy People 2010 national adult smoking prevalence objective (13%). Methods. Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys, we calculated smoking prevalence over time with a dynamic population demographics model, examining the effects or changes in smoking initiation and cessation. Results. The draft objective is unattainable solely through decreases in smoking initiation. It could be achieved through smoking cessation alone only if cessation rates immediately increased by a factor of more than 3.5. Assuming plausible decreases in initiation and increases in cessation, the draft objective is virtually unattainable. Conclusions. The health objectives should challenge the status quo but be achievable. Formal analysis often can assist in establishing reasonable objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendez, D. & Warner, K.E., 2000. "Smoking prevalence in 2010: Why the healthy people goal is unattainable," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(3), pages 401-403.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:2000:90:3:401-403_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Sajjad Ahmad & John Billimek, 2005. "Estimating the Health Impacts of Tobacco Harm Reduction Policies: A Simulation Modeling Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 801-812, August.
    2. Ahmad, Sajjad & Billimek, John, 2007. "Limiting youth access to tobacco: Comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 378-391, March.
    3. Rosemary Avery & Donald Kenkel & Dean R. Lillard & Alan Mathios, 2007. "Private Profits and Public Health: Does Advertising of Smoking Cessation Products Encourage Smokers to Quit?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(3), pages 447-481.

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