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Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset

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  • Brookmeyer, R.
  • Gray, S.
  • Kawas, C.

Abstract

Objectives. The goal of this study was to project the future prevalence and incidence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the potential impact of interventions to delay disease onset. Methods. The numbers of individuals in the United States with Alzheimer's disease and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases that can be expected over the next 50 years were estimated from a model that used age-specific incidence rates summarized from several epidemiological studies, US mortality rates, and US Bureau of the Census projections. Results. In 1997, the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States was 2.32 million (range: 1.09 to 4.58 million); of these individuals, 68% were female. It is projected that the prevalence will nearly quadruple in the next 50 years, by which time approximately 1 in 45 Americans will be afflicted with the disease. Currently, the annual number of new incident cases is 360 000. If interventions could delay onset of the disease by 2 years, after 50 years there would be nearly 2 million fewer cases than projected; if onset could be delayed by 1 year, there would be nearly 800 000 fewer prevalent cases. Conclusions. As the US population ages, Alzheimer's disease will become an enormous public health problem. Interventions that could delay disease onset even modestly would have a major public health impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Brookmeyer, R. & Gray, S. & Kawas, C., 1998. "Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 88(9), pages 1337-1342.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1998:88:9:1337-1342_6
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    Cited by:

    1. James F Burke & Kenneth M Langa & Rodney A Hayward & Roger L Albin, 2014. "Modeling Test and Treatment Strategies for Presymptomatic Alzheimer Disease," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Zarish Noreen & Jessica DeJesus & Attya Bhatti & Christopher A. Loffredo & Peter John & Jahangir S. Khan & Gail Nunlee-Bland & Somiranjan Ghosh, 2018. "Epidemiological Investigation of Type 2 Diabetes and Alzheimer’s Disease in a Pakistani Population," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-10, July.
    3. Pierre Joly & Célia Touraine & Aurore Georget & Jean-François Dartigues & Daniel Commenges & Hélène Jacqmin-Gadda, 2013. "Prevalence Projections of Chronic Diseases and Impact of Public Health Intervention," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 109-117, March.
    4. Wanneveich, Mathilde & Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène & Dartigues, Jean-François & Joly, Pierre, 2018. "Projections of health indicators for chronic disease under a semi-Markov assumption," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 83-90.
    5. Masataka Kikuchi & Soichi Ogishima & Tadashi Miyamoto & Akinori Miyashita & Ryozo Kuwano & Jun Nakaya & Hiroshi Tanaka, 2013. "Identification of Unstable Network Modules Reveals Disease Modules Associated with the Progression of Alzheimer’s Disease," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-1, November.
    6. Jamal B. Williams & Qing Cao & Wei Wang & Young-Ho Lee & Luye Qin & Ping Zhong & Yong Ren & Kaijie Ma & Zhen Yan, 2023. "Inhibition of histone methyltransferase Smyd3 rescues NMDAR and cognitive deficits in a tauopathy mouse model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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