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The accuracy of health risk appraisal in predicting mortality

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  • Foxman, B.
  • Edington, D.W.

Abstract

In order to determine the accuracy of the Centers for Disease Control/Health Risk Appraisal (CDC/HRA) program, the authors compared observed to predicted mortality for the 3,135 persons followed from 1959-79 as part of the Tecumseh Community Health Study. The analysis was limited to smokers and never-smokers aged 25-60 whose 1959 questionnaires included at least the minimal variables for prediction using the CDC/HRA (age, sex, race, height, weight, and smoking habits). For men and women overall and in each age group, the observed proportion dying over 20 years of follow-up increased as the difference between 1959 age and risk age increased. CDC/HRA predicted 10-year risks of mortality appeared to improve upon age-sex-race predicted risks of mortality when compared to the observed proportion dying over 10 years and when predictors were used in a logistic regression model with vital status after 10 years as the dependent variable. Thus, CDC/HRA may be an appropriate methd for identifying high-risk populations for health interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Foxman, B. & Edington, D.W., 1987. "The accuracy of health risk appraisal in predicting mortality," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 77(8), pages 971-974.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1987:77:8:971-974_0
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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Cutler & Jonathan Gruber & Raymond S. Hartman & Mary Beth Landrum & Joseph P. Newhouse & Meredith B. Rosenthal, 2002. "The Economic impacts of the tobacco settlement," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-19.

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