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Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations

Author

Listed:
  • McClure, R.J.
  • Adriazola-Steil, C.
  • Mulvihill, C.
  • Fitzharris, M.
  • Salmon, P.
  • Bonnington, C.P.
  • Stevenson, M.

Abstract

Objectives: We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population. Methods: We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability adjusted life years lost. Results: Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period. Conclusions: Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.

Suggested Citation

  • McClure, R.J. & Adriazola-Steil, C. & Mulvihill, C. & Fitzharris, M. & Salmon, P. & Bonnington, C.P. & Stevenson, M., 2015. "Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 105, pages 223-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2014.302303_5
    DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302303
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozgur M. Araz & Fernando A. Wilson & Jim P. Stimpson, 2020. "Complex systems modeling for evaluating potential impact of traffic safety policies: a case on drug-involved fatal crashes," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 37-58, August.

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