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Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Levy, D.T.
  • Pearson, J.L.
  • Villanti, A.C.
  • Blackman, K.
  • Vallone, D.M.
  • Niaura, R.S.
  • Abrams, D.B.

Abstract

We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633252 overall and 237317 for Blacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Levy, D.T. & Pearson, J.L. & Villanti, A.C. & Blackman, K. & Vallone, D.M. & Niaura, R.S. & Abrams, D.B., 2011. "Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 101(7), pages 1236-1240.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2011.300179_7
    DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2011.300179
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    Cited by:

    1. Bartosz Olesiński, 2020. "The Analysis of the Tobacco Product Bans Using a Random Coefficients Logit Model," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(2), pages 113-144, June.
    2. Danielle R. Davis & Maria A. Parker & Cristine D. Delnevo & Andrea C. Villanti, 2021. "Examining Menthol Preference as a Correlate of Change in Cigarette Smoking Behavior over a One-Year Period," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-7, October.
    3. John Buckell & Joachim Marti & Jody L. Sindelar, 2017. "Should Flavors be Banned in E-cigarettes? Evidence on Adult Smokers and Recent Quitters from a Discrete Choice Experiment," NBER Working Papers 23865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Anna Booras & Renda Soylemez Wiener & Jennifer Maccarone & Andrew C. Stokes & Jessica L. Fetterman & Naomi M. Hamburg & Johar Singh & Katia Bulekova & Hasmeena Kathuria, 2023. "A Longitudinal Study of Perceptions of the Massachusetts Menthol Ban and Its Impact on Smoking Behaviors among Marginalized Individuals," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-13, May.
    5. WHO Study Group on Tobacco Product Regulation (TobReg), 2016. "Advisory note: banning menthol in tobacco products," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt8td7w55n, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.

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