IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aph/ajpbhl/10.2105-ajph.2009.166785_7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: A simulation model of the three-part cessation process

Author

Listed:
  • Levy, D.T.
  • Mabry, P.L.
  • Graham, A.L.
  • Orleans, C.T.
  • Abrams, D.B.

Abstract

Objectives. We used a simulation model to analyze whether the Healthy People 2010 goal of reducing smoking prevalence from the current 19.8% rate to 12% by 2010 could be accomplished by increasing quit attempts, increasing the use of treatments, or increasing the effectiveness of treatment. Methods. We expanded on previous versions of the tobacco control simulation model SimSmoke to assess the effects of an Increase in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness to reduce smoking prevalence. In the model, we considered increases in each of these parameters individually and in combination. Results. Individually, 100% increases in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness reduced the projected 2020 prevalence to 13.9%, 16.7%, and 15.9%, respectively. With a combined 100% increase in all components, the goal of a 12% adult smoking prevalence could be reached by 2012. Conclusions. If we are to come close to reaching Healthy People 2010 goals in the foreseeable future, we must not only induce quit attempts but also increase treatment use and effectiveness. Simulation models provide a useful tool for evaluating tne potential to reach public health targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Levy, D.T. & Mabry, P.L. & Graham, A.L. & Orleans, C.T. & Abrams, D.B., 2010. "Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: A simulation model of the three-part cessation process," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 100(7), pages 1253-1259.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2009.166785_7
    DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.166785
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2105/AJPH.2009.166785
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2105/AJPH.2009.166785?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David T. Levy & Christopher J. Cadham & Yameng Li & Zhe Yuan & Alex C. Liber & Hayoung Oh & Nargiz Travis & Mona Issabakhsh & David T. Sweanor & Luz Maria Sánchez-Romero & Rafael Meza & K. Michael Cum, 2022. "A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Michael V Maciosek & Amy B LaFrance & Ann W St. Claire & Paula A Keller & Zack Xu & Barbara A Schillo, 2020. "The 20-year impact of tobacco price and tobacco control expenditure increases in Minnesota, 1998-2017," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Sean A. Simpson & James M. Nonnemaker, 2013. "New York Tobacco Control Program Cessation Assistance: Costs, Benefits, and Effectiveness," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-11, March.
    4. Andrea C. Villanti & Jennifer Cullen & Donna M. Vallone & Elizabeth A. Stuart, 2011. "Use of Propensity Score Matching to Evaluate a National Smoking Cessation Media Campaign," Evaluation Review, , vol. 35(6), pages 571-591, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2009.166785_7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.apha.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.