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Factors Affecting The Number Of Registered Automobile Insurance In Myanmar Based On Bayesian Modeling Using The Mcmc Procedure

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  • AINT PHONE SAN

    (Chiang Mai, University, Thailand)

Abstract

Insurance plays a vital role in financial sector. Myanmar economy is dramatically developed under new nominally civilian government’s policies. This paper presents how government policy changing in other factors affects automobile insurance premium by using MCMC methods which is developed from Bayesian inference. The annual secondary data of registered vehicles, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, premium of Third Party Liability Motor Insurance and Comprehensive Motor Insurance over the period of 1994 to 2014 were used in this study. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and Gibbs sampling are applied in this study. Raftery and Lewis convergence diagnostic are computed for MCMC sampler output to determine accuracy and probability of the parameter within a specified quantile to estimate if the parameters are convergent or not. The results show that there is a positive relationship between automobile insurance and other factors such as GDP, registered vehicles and population. However, the number of registered vehicles has no impact on automobile insurance although there is a mandatory motor insurance law in Myanmar.

Suggested Citation

  • Aint Phone San, 2016. "Factors Affecting The Number Of Registered Automobile Insurance In Myanmar Based On Bayesian Modeling Using The Mcmc Procedure," International Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Dr. Mohammad Hamad Al-khresheh, vol. 2(2), pages 74-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:apa:ijhass:2016:p:74-86
    DOI: 10.20469/ijhss.2.20004-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Raj Kumar Malik∗ & Gyanesh Kumar Sinha, 2020. "Sustainable Logistics in Automobile Passenger Vehicle Manufacturing Organizations," International Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Dr. Mohammad Hamad Al-khresheh, vol. 6(2), pages 1-9.
    2. Karolina Lopacinska, 2016. "The Merger of Geely Automobile and Volvo Car Corporation as an Example of the Expansion of Chinese Capital in the Automotive Sector," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 2(6), pages 162-173.

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