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The Covid-19 pandemic economic costs in terms of labour force loss

Author

Listed:
  • Ondrej Bednar

    (Prague University of Business and Economics, Dept. of Economics)

  • Bozena Kaderabkova

    (Cevro Institut, Center for Economic Studies)

Abstract

Within a broader context of economic costs of the recent pandemic we calculate the excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic over the whole population and split them into age subgroups. Further, we estimate the cost of the labor force lost due to the pandemic. We employ a general additive model to set up a counterfactual time series of weekly deaths to count the number of deaths if the pandemic did not occur. Subtracting counterfactual series from the actual number of fatalities provides us with the excess deaths. The amount of excess deaths in the whole population is not statistically different from the COVID-19 victims reported by the Ministry of Health. However, we find excess deaths that are substantially higher than the reported COVID-19 causalities in the age group from 35 to 59 years. We estimated the costs of the lost labor force to be approximately 0.03% of the Czech 2021 GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondrej Bednar & Bozena Kaderabkova, 2022. "The Covid-19 pandemic economic costs in terms of labour force loss," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aop:jijoes:v:11:y:2022:i:2:p:1-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Hanly & Michelle Ahern & Linda Sharp & Diana Ursul & Gerard Loughnane, 2022. "Correction to: The cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality associated with COVID-19: a Pan-European study," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(1), pages 153-153, February.
    2. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    3. Claudio Borio, 2020. "The Covid-19 economic crisis: dangerously unique," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 181-190, October.
    4. Fotiadis, Anestis & Polyzos, Stathis & Huan, Tzung-Cheng T.C., 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly on COVID-19 tourism recovery," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Paul Hanly & Michelle Ahern & Linda Sharp & Diana Ursul & Gerard Loughnane, 2022. "The cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality associated with COVID-19: a Pan-European study," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(2), pages 249-259, March.
    6. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilal Karg? & Mario Coccia & Bekir Cihan Uçkaç, 2023. "Findings from the first wave of Covid-19 on the different impacts of lockdown on public health and economic growth," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 12(2), pages 21-39, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid 19; labour force; GDP; excess deaths;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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