IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/anr/refeco/v1y2009p117-144.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Financial Crises and Sovereign Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Dale F. Gray

    (Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. 20431)

Abstract

The complex interactions, spillovers, and feedbacks of the global crisis that began in 2007 remind us of how important it is to improve our analysis and modeling of financial crises and sovereign risk. This review provides a broad framework to examine how vulnerabilities can build up and suddenly erupt in a financial crisis, with potentially disastrous feedback effects for sovereign debt and economic growth. Traditional macroeconomic analyses overlook the importance of risk, which makes them ill-suited to examine interconnectedness, risk transmission mechanisms, and contagion. After presenting an overview of the key features of the global 2007-2009 crisis, this review discusses new directions for research on modeling financial crises and sovereign risk, including the need for integrating risk into macroeconomic policy models and enhancing early warning system and financial contagion models through a more comprehensive view of economy-wide risks. Also, new tools to mitigate and control macro risk need to be developed, along with new approaches to regulate financial sector risk-taking and monitor and manage the interactions between private sector and sovereign risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale F. Gray, 2009. "Modeling Financial Crises and Sovereign Risks," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 117-144, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:1:y:2009:p:117-144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.financial.050808.114316
    Download Restriction: Full text downloads are only available to subscribers. Visit the abstract page for more information.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1108, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    2. Lukas Richau & Florian Follert & Monika Frenger & Eike Emrich, 2021. "The sky is the limit?! Evaluating the existence of a speculative bubble in European football," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(6), pages 765-796, August.
    3. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    4. Eisenkopf, Gerald & Hessami, Zohal & Fischbacher, Urs & Ursprung, Heinrich W., 2015. "Academic performance and single-sex schooling: Evidence from a natural experiment in Switzerland," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 123-143.
    5. Caporin, Massimiliano & Natvik, Gisle J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2019. "The bank-sovereign nexus: Evidence from a non-bailout episode," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 181-196.
    6. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    7. Yonggang Ye & Jiaqi Yang & Lingfeng Song & Pei ZHang, 2013. "Macroeconomics Framework Considered Risk Factors: Based on Default Distance," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 124-133, December.
    8. Guntram B. Wolff, 2012. "Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt?," Bruegel Working Papers 717, Bruegel.
    9. Oleg Deev & Martin Hodula, 2016. "Sovereign default risk and state-owned bank fragility in emerging markets: evidence from China and Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 232-248, April.
    10. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Working Papers 16223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mathias Mandla Manguzvane & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "South African Banks’ Cross-Border Systemic Risk Exposure: An Application of the GAS Copula Marginal Expected Shortfall," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2013. "Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4627-4649.
    13. Bruno Martins & Ricardo Schechtman, 2013. "Too Rich to Let Me Fail?," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 13, CEMLA.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:1:y:2009:p:117-144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: http://www.annualreviews.org (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.annualreviews.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.