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Factor Models, Machine Learning, and Asset Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Giglio

    (Yale School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA)

  • Bryan Kelly

    (Yale School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA)

  • Dacheng Xiu

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA)

Abstract

We survey recent methodological contributions in asset pricing using factor models and machine learning. We organize these results based on their primary objectives: estimating expected returns, factors, risk exposures, risk premia, and the stochastic discount factor as well as model comparison and alpha testing. We also discuss a variety of asymptotic schemes for inference. Our survey is a guide for financial economists interested in harnessing modern tools with rigor, robustness, and power to make new asset pricing discoveries, and it highlights directions for future research and methodological advances.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2022. "Factor Models, Machine Learning, and Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 337-368, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:14:y:2022:p:337-368
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-101521-104735
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yonghe Lu & Yanrong Yang & Terry Zhang, 2024. "Double Descent in Portfolio Optimization: Dance between Theoretical Sharpe Ratio and Estimation Accuracy," Papers 2411.18830, arXiv.org.
    2. Alessi, Lucia & Ossola, Elisa & Panzica, Roberto, 2023. "When do investors go green? Evidence from a time-varying asset-pricing model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Ma, Tian & Wang, Wanwan & Chen, Yu, 2023. "Attention is all you need: An interpretable transformer-based asset allocation approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Zhu, Zhoufan & Zhang, Ningning & Zhu, Ke, 2024. "Big portfolio selection by graph-based conditional moments method," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Qingliang Fan & Ruike Wu & Yanrong Yang, 2024. "Shocks-adaptive Robust Minimum Variance Portfolio for a Large Universe of Assets," Papers 2410.01826, arXiv.org.
    7. Yujie Ding & Shuai Jia & Tianyi Ma & Bingcheng Mao & Xiuze Zhou & Liuliu Li & Dongming Han, 2023. "Integrating Stock Features and Global Information via Large Language Models for Enhanced Stock Return Prediction," Papers 2310.05627, arXiv.org.
    8. Kelvin J. L. Koa & Yunshan Ma & Ritchie Ng & Tat-Seng Chua, 2024. "Learning to Generate Explainable Stock Predictions using Self-Reflective Large Language Models," Papers 2402.03659, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    9. Trent Spears & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2023. "View fusion vis-\`a-vis a Bayesian interpretation of Black-Litterman for portfolio allocation," Papers 2301.13594, arXiv.org.
    10. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    11. Liao, Cunfei & Ma, Tian, 2024. "From fundamental signals to stock volatility: A machine learning approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Langlois, Hugues, 2023. "What matters in a characteristic?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 52-72.
    13. Jozef Barunik & Matej Nevrla, 2022. "Common Idiosyncratic Quantile Risk," Papers 2208.14267, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    14. Adel Javanmard & Jingwei Ji & Renyuan Xu, 2024. "Multi-Task Dynamic Pricing in Credit Market with Contextual Information," Papers 2410.14839, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    15. Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez & Muhammad Shahzad & Xia Hong, 2025. "Multi-Hypothesis Prediction for Portfolio Optimization: A Structured Ensemble Learning Approach to Risk Diversification," Papers 2501.03919, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    16. Chen, Ding & Guo, Biao & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Firm fundamentals and the cross-section of implied volatility shapes," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2024. "Portfolio management with big data," Working Papers wp2024_2411, CEMFI.
    18. Nie, Chun-Xiao & Song, Fu-Tie, 2023. "Stable versus fragile community structures in the correlation dynamics of Chinese industry indices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Matteo Bagnara, 2024. "Asset Pricing and Machine Learning: A critical review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 27-56, February.
    20. Vafai, Nima & Rakowski, David, 2024. "The sources of portfolio volatility and mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    21. Junyi Ye & Bhaskar Goswami & Jingyi Gu & Ajim Uddin & Guiling Wang, 2024. "From Factor Models to Deep Learning: Machine Learning in Reshaping Empirical Asset Pricing," Papers 2403.06779, arXiv.org.
    22. Bagnara, Matteo, 2024. "The economic value of cross-predictability: A performance-based measure," SAFE Working Paper Series 424, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    23. Giuseppe Buccheri & Fulvio Corsi & Emilija Dzuverovic, 2024. "From rotational to scalar invariance: Enhancing identifiability in score-driven factor models," Papers 2412.01367, arXiv.org.
    24. Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs & Piotr Orłowski, 2024. "Modeling Conditional Factor Risk Premia Implied by Index Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2289-2338, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing; factor models; machine learning; risk premium; stochastic discount factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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