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Investigation of Causality Relationships among COVID-19 Cases, ISE100 Index, Dollar, Euro, Gram Gold Prices and 2 Years Bond Rates: The Case of Turkey

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  • Yüksel Akay Ünvan

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyze such economic data during the outbreak of the COVID-19 in Turkey. The variable rates were taken from COVID-19 situations, ISE-100 index, Turkish lira dollar (TRY), TRY euro prices, TRY gram Gold and two year bond rates. General COVID-19 information was provided and certain financial indicators were investigated in COVID-19 (47 days). First of all, these variables were used as descriptive statistics and correlation matrix. For the purposes of stationarity testing, the first variables were stationary with Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Terron Tests. The lag duration of the deployment model VECM was then calculated as the fourth lag with the highest information requirement. The co-integration relationship between the variables was calculated by the Johansen Cointegration Test. Thanks to this relationship, the variables have a long-term correlation. The Vector Fix Model (VECM) was chosen because it is co-integration. Inverse roots, autocorrelation and normality have been developed, which are essential assumptions to use the VECM (4) model; Therefore, the Granger Causality / Block Exogeneity Wald Test was applied to the variables of the VECM(4) model to define causality relationships between these variables. The results of this test have identified causalities for Turkey 2 years of government bond rates, Euro in TRY, Dollar prices in TRY and Gram in TRY

Suggested Citation

  • Yüksel Akay Ünvan, 2020. "Investigation of Causality Relationships among COVID-19 Cases, ISE100 Index, Dollar, Euro, Gram Gold Prices and 2 Years Bond Rates: The Case of Turkey," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 8(1), pages 29-42, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:anm:alpnmr:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:29-42
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.731303
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2011. "Comovements and Causality of Sector Price Indices: Evidence from the Egyptian Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 28127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hosseini, Seyed Mehdi & Ahmad, Zamri & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Role of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Index in China and India," MPRA Paper 112215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bonds; COVID-19; COVID-19 Turkey; Dollar; Euro; Gold; ISE100;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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