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Stochastic Modeling Of The Macroeconomic Aggregates - Study Case: Romanian Economic Relations

Author

Listed:
  • Liviu-Stelian Begu

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

  • Alina Cretu

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

  • Adriana Alexandru

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Abstract

The paper is analyzing the main tendencies in the Romanian economy after1990, trying to identify, which variables are influencing on long term the process of accessionto EU. Statistical analysis, nonparametric tests, regression analysis and particularly analysisof the main (principal) factor, applied for a system of aggregate measures, can determineclusters of ex-communist countries and allows us to establish the gap between Romania andother ex-communist countries. The paper is also developing possible scenarios for theRomanian economy. The study case is about the evolution of the main economic indicators forexternal relations for Romania in 1996-2006. The evolution is based on balance of paymentsand the major economic aggregates. The results shows us that the Romanian economy is notyet in order but some indicators are very good for a market economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Liviu-Stelian Begu & Alina Cretu & Adriana Alexandru, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling Of The Macroeconomic Aggregates - Study Case: Romanian Economic Relations," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(10), pages 1-9.
  • Handle: RePEc:alu:journl:v:2:y:2008:i:10:p:9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    factorial analysis; balance of payments; cluster of countries; external relations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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