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Industry 4.0 and some social consequences: Impact assessment by microsimulation for Hungary

Author

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  • Ilona Cserháti

    (Department of Statistics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary)

  • Károly Pirisi

    (Department of International Trade and Logistics, Budapest Business School, Hungary)

Abstract

The expected future impact of the fourth industrial revolution is a hotly debated issue in the literature. The majority of papers focus on quantifying the expected impacts on labour demand, or on a specific country, or on huge macro-regions – and the estimates differ widely. Our paper focuses on the impact assessment of Industry 4.0 on the expected structure of employment, wages and inequalities in Hungary. We built a static microsimulation model for our analysis, where the “EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions Hungary 2017” dataset was used as a starting point. Projections by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) were used for policy simulations on future employment by sector and by occupational group for each European Union (EU) member state. The analysis also elaborates our own augmented vision about the expected labour demand changes and expected wage trends. Based on this information, the spill-over effects were calculated regarding wage structure and inequalities by sector, region and the highest educational attainment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilona Cserháti & Károly Pirisi, 2020. "Industry 4.0 and some social consequences: Impact assessment by microsimulation for Hungary," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 42(2), pages 105-123, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:soceco:v:42:y:2020:i:2:p:105-123
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    File URL: http://www.akademiai.com/doi/pdf/10.1556/204.2020.00010
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    Cited by:

    1. Grybauskas, Andrius & Stefanini, Alessandro & Ghobakhloo, Morteza, 2022. "Social sustainability in the age of digitalization: A systematic literature Review on the social implications of industry 4.0," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment; labour demand; wage structure; skills; microsimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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