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Export Specialisation and Output Synchronisation in the Euro Area: The Case of Southern Countries

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  • Sofia Helena Gouveia

    (Department of Economics, Sociology and Management (DESG), Centre for Transdisciplinary Development Studies (CETRAD), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro (UTAD), Quinta de Prados, Vila Real, Portugal)

Abstract

Business cycle synchronisation and the similarity in the sectoral structure of exports are key conditions for the successful implementation of common monetary policy, as shown by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. This paper examines the degree of correlation between the aggregate euro area and 12 member states’ business cycles and the role of their exports specialisation dynamics vis-à-vis the euro area over the period 1981–2012, focusing in particular on Southern European countries. Overall, we find that since the inception of the European Monetary Union, the business cycles of euro area member states have been increasingly synchronised with the aggregate euro area cycle, with the exception of Greece. We also document that changes in the Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish export structures brought these countries closer to the euro area structure as a whole. Furthermore, we find a positive and significant relationship between the similarity of export structures and GDP cyclical correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofia Helena Gouveia, 2016. "Export Specialisation and Output Synchronisation in the Euro Area: The Case of Southern Countries," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 66(4), pages 617-637, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:aoecon:v:66:y:2016:i:4:p:617-637
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    File URL: http://www.akademiai.com/doi/pdf/10.1556/032.2016.66.4.3
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis J. Álvarez & M.ª Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "La evolución cíclica de la economía española en el contexto europeo," Occasional Papers 2103, Banco de España.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    specialisation; business cycles synchronisation; optimum currency area; Southern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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