IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aka/aoecon/v65y2015i3p479-501.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New composite leading indicator of the Hungarian business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Tkáčová

    (Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Košice (TUKE), Košice, Slovakia)

  • Marianna Siničáková

    (Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Košice (TUKE), Košice, Slovakia)

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to create a composite leading indicator (CLI) for monitoring and predicting Hungarian business cycles. We compare the existing CLI applied by the OECD and Eurostat with our own CLI. According to our findings, our CLI forecasts the evolution of a referential series more precisely than the CLIs developed by the OECD and Eurostat. Nevertheless, from our point of view, the application of all existing CLIs at the same time can be appropriate. Consequently, the number of false signals should be reduced. The CLIs allow us to receive the first rough preliminary estimations of an economic cycle, in our case, the Hungarian one.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Tkáčová & Marianna Siničáková, 2015. "New composite leading indicator of the Hungarian business cycle," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(3), pages 479-501, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:aoecon:v:65:y:2015:i:3:p:479-501
    Note: The paper was elaborated within the project of Scientific Grant Agencies (VEGA) No. 1/0994/15.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.akademiai.com/doi/pdf/10.1556/032.65.2015.3.7
    Download Restriction: subscription
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    leading indicators; composite leading indicator; business cycle; reference series; GDP; industrial production index; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aka:aoecon:v:65:y:2015:i:3:p:479-501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kriston, Orsolya (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://akademiai.hu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.