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The effect of COVID-19 restrictions (lockdown) on GDP growth in CIS countries

Author

Listed:
  • Zarnigor Dzhuraeva

    (Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russia)

  • James Okrah

    (Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russia)

  • Gulbahor N. Naziri

    (National Bank of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

Abstract

Relevance. Global economy has suffered significant economic consequences as a result of the COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic crisis had generally been felt around the world. However, developing economies, with their many institutional constraints, have been much more affected by the crisis. This prompted governments to devise stringent policies to limit its destructiveness, with the goal of saving the populace while minimizing economic damage. Research objective. We investigate the effect of government's stringent policies on economic growth and the influence of stringent policies and inflation on economic growth in CIS's countries. Data and Methods. Our analysis is conducted using quantile regression, which is an extension of the Johnson-Neumann interval OLS, and a simple slope analysis for the period from 1 March 2020 to 17 September 2021. Results. Our findings show that the government's stringent policies have a negative effect on economy, reducing GDP growth by 4.9% in the mean model. Excessively stringent policies have a negative impact on the economy and the consequent decline in living conditions. Conclusions. The findings of this study reveal that policymakers should take a targeted approach to COVID policies, considering the varying effects of stringency across different levels of economic growth and taking into account the potential interaction with inflation rates. By implementing policies that balance the need for public health and economic growth, policymakers can mitigate the negative impacts of COVID restrictions on the economy and minimize the risk of stagnation traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Zarnigor Dzhuraeva & James Okrah & Gulbahor N. Naziri, 2023. "The effect of COVID-19 restrictions (lockdown) on GDP growth in CIS countries," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 9(4), pages 422-436.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiy:journl:v:9:y:2023:i:4:p:422-436
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2023.9.4.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey & Richard Barfi, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy: Emphasis on Poverty Alleviation and Economic Growth," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 8(1), pages 32-43.
    2. Jena, Pradyot Ranjan & Majhi, Ritanjali & Kalli, Rajesh & Managi, Shunsuke & Majhi, Babita, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 324-339.
    3. Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey & Richard Barfi, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy: Emphasis on Poverty Alleviation and Economic Growth," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 8(1), pages 32-43.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP growth; COVID-19; stringency index; inflation rate; CIS country; quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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