Impact of Social Spending and Inter-Regional Migration on Employment Rates in Russian Regions

Relevance. The employment level in Russia plays a crucial role in the social and economic development of regions. The federal policy of Russia is geared towards bolstering regional employment through targeted social spending and fostering balanced inter-regional migration. Analyzing the contribution of these policies to employment outcomes offers insights for shaping effective regional strategies across the Russian Federation's entities. Research objective. This study aims to uncover the key relationships and assess the impact of inter-regional migration and social policy spending on employment dynamics in Russian regions. Data and methods. Our research is based on a dataset encompassing 83 Russian regions spanning from 2000 to 2021. The study relies on the data sourced from the Treasury of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance, and the Federal State Statistics Service. To model these dynamics, we employ simultaneous quantile regression with bootstrapped standard error. Results. Inter-regional migration tends to exert a negative influence on regional employment rates in most cases. Public spending on social policy, on the other hand, contributes to employment gains in regions with relatively healthier employment rates, while exhibiting less efficacy in regions dealing with more significant employment challenges. Western regions, characterized by more favorable employment situations and higher economic development, tend to be more attractive to migrants. Conclusions. Current trends in inter-regional migration demonstrate diminished effectiveness in stimulating regional employment. Social policies generally boost employment in most regions, although there's still potential for improvement in areas with job disparities. Based on our findings, we propose several policy implications for both federal and regional governments to enhance employment policies in Russia.