Strengthening fiscal decentralization in Russia: causes of the 2020 failure and prospective directions

Relevance. Strengthening fiscal decentralization is viewed as a crucial strategy to foster the economic development of Russian regions. Research objective. The research aims to assess the potential impact of redistributing tax revenues, particularly VAT, among various budget levels. Data and Methods. The study employs regression analysis to investigate the correlation between the Gross Regional Product (GRP) of Russian regions and the expenditures of their consolidated budgets. A comparative analysis is also conducted, using data from the Federal Tax Service on VAT receipts to the federal budget and data from the Federal State Statistics Service on GRP and expenditure components of regional budgets from 2005 to 2021. Results. The research confirms the Russian government’s concerns regarding a possible increase in economic disparities if 40% of VAT is shifted to sub-federal levels. It reveals the negative impact that such a measure would have on specific regions. Instead, a more promising approach is to implement a special budgetary regime in select regions to stimulate their development. Conclusion. The study showcases adverse effects associated with transferring 40% of VAT to the sub-federal level. It proposes a mechanism to enhance fiscal decentralization in Russia, aiming to advance regional economic development, address economic disparities among regions, and offset any potential reduction in federal budget revenues.