IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahs/journl/v10y2025i1p140-159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation Spillovers and Geopolitical Risks: Evidence from Euro Area Countries Using TVP-VAR and Quantile Models

Author

Listed:
  • Cumali MARANGOZ

Abstract

This study examines the inflation transmission mechanism across 14 European Union countries, from May 1963 to November 2023. Contrary to the existing literature, this study employs a two-stage approach to examine the spillover effect of inflation in the European Region. The study identifies the inflation spillover effects by applying a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with the joint connectedness framework. Moreover, we analyze the relationship between the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) and geopolitical risks (GPR) using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QoQ) model and explore how geopolitical uncertainties influence inflation transmission dynamics. The analysis provides significant contributions to the literature in terms of both methodology and scope by allowing responses to risk shocks of different magnitudes to be measured at quantile levels. The findings show that as Denmark, Germany, and France are highly interconnected with other countries in the region, they have an essential of spreading inflation. Unlike, the global and the US’s risk indices, Russia’s and Europe’s GPR have a more significant impact on inflation. Finally, the interaction between TCI and GPR differ across quantiles, implying the existence of non-linear and asymmetric impacts of geopolitical events on inflation interconnectedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Cumali MARANGOZ, 2025. "Inflation Spillovers and Geopolitical Risks: Evidence from Euro Area Countries Using TVP-VAR and Quantile Models," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 10(1), pages 140-159.
  • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:1:p:140-159
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1599945
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4433501
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1599945?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Transmission; European Union; Geopolitical Risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:1:p:140-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ersan Ersoy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://epfjournal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.