IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahd/journl/v5y2024i6p54-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Prospects for Public Finance Management Sustainability: An Econometric Approach for Debt in Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilia CIOCÎRLAN

    (The National School of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Bianca Roxana SALAGEANU (ȘOLDAN)

    (The National School of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Andreea STANCEA

    (The National School of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Victor CIUCIUC

    (The National School of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This paper presents the evolution of the level of public debt in Central and Eastern European countries outside the Monetary Union and explores the sustainability of public debt through the analysis of socioeconomic and institutional factors. We analyze the relationship between economic factors (budget deficit, economic growth rate, interest rate), social factors (unemployment rate, life expectancy), institutional factors (efficiency of public administration, degree of democratization, level of corruption) and public debt. Research on this geographical area has been relatively scarce. Using an OLS regression design, the results indicate and quantify the importance of the dynamics between public debt, budget deficit, interest rate, and economic growth. We find that, for CEE countries, sustainability of the public debt/GDP level depends to a high extent on life expectancy: 1 percentage point increase in life expectancy leads to an increase in public debt of approximately 6.5%. The results have significant policy implications as high levels of debt can strain government finances, leading to potential fiscal crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia CIOCÎRLAN & Bianca Roxana SALAGEANU (ȘOLDAN) & Andreea STANCEA & Victor CIUCIUC, 2024. "Macroeconomic Prospects for Public Finance Management Sustainability: An Econometric Approach for Debt in Central and Eastern European Countries," CECCAR Business Review, Body of Expert and Licensed Accountants of Romania (CECCAR), vol. 5(6), pages 54-67, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahd:journl:v:5:y:2024:i:6:p:54-67
    DOI: 10.37945/cbr.2024.06.06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ceccarbusinessreview.ro/macroeconomic-prospects-for-public-finance-management-sustainability-an-econometric-approach-for-debt-in-central-and-eastern-european-countries-a400d/download-PDF/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.ceccarbusinessreview.ro/macroeconomic-prospects-for-public-finance-management-sustainability-an-econometric-approach-for-debt-in-central-and-eastern-european-countries-a400a/abstract/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.37945/cbr.2024.06.06?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    2. Kamiguchi, Akira & Tamai, Toshiki, 2019. "Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 110-122.
    3. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2012. "Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1563-1587, December.
    4. Lankester-Campos, Valerie & Loaiza-Marín, Kerry & Monge-Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction function," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    5. Alfred Greiner & Bettina Fincke, 2015. "Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-09348-2, July.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    7. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    8. Ilhèm Gargouri & Majdi Ksantini, 2016. "The Determinants Of Public Debt," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 111-124, March.
    9. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    10. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
    11. Lloyd Thomas & Danhua Wu, 2009. "Long-term interest rates and expected future budget deficits: evidence from the term structure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 365-368.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    2. Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine & Wright, Mark L.J., 2014. "The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-17.
    3. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves, 2015. "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 9-26, December.
    4. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    5. Guillaume Guex & Sébastien Guex, 2018. "Debt, economic growth, and interest rates: an empirical study of the Swiss case, presenting a new long-term dataset: 1894–2014," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Attahir Babaji Abubakar, 2020. "Does fiscal tightening (loosening) reduce public debt?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 528-539, December.
    7. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    8. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    9. Scheer, Alexander, 2015. "Debt consolidation with long-term debt," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112874, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Shiv Shankar & Pushpa Trivedi, 2023. "Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 41-70, June.
    11. Grobéty, Mathieu, 2018. "Government debt and growth: The role of liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-22.
    12. İbrahim ÖZMEN, 2022. "New Evidence from Government Debt and Economic Growth in Core and Periphery European Union Countries : Asymmetric Panel Causality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 167-187, October.
    13. Kamiguchi, Akira & Tamai, Toshiki, 2023. "Public investment, national debt, and economic growth: The role of debt finance under dynamic inefficiency," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    15. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. António Afonso & Yasfir Ibraimo, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of public debt: an empirical analysis of Mozambique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 212-226, January.
    17. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    18. Mara Leticia Rojas & María María Ibáñez Martín & Carlos Dabús, 2023. "Is Debt Always Harmful for Economic Growth? Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 292, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    19. Magdalena Osińska & Tadeusz Kufel & Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1381-1430, March.
    20. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policies; Keynesian approach; public debt; sustainability; public finance management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahd:journl:v:5:y:2024:i:6:p:54-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Radu CIOBANU (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.