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Changes in Corn Acreage and Production After the Early Indications

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  • Clough, Malcolm

Abstract

Early-season indications of corn acreage and production are important to farmers, to processors, and to the Government. This article compares the earliest indication of corn acreage and production each season with the actual outcome of the crop as estimated in December. During the last two or three decades, more than 80 percent of the year-to-year variation in corn acreage has been reflected in the Mare?, 1 intentions, and about 60 percent of the variation in corn production has been reflected in the July 1 indications. But 40 percent of the variation in corn production has been determined after July 1, and decisions based on July indications must allow for this remaining uncertainty. In general, the range of uncertainty is reduced substantially by the August and September crop reports. The September estimates have differed from the December estimates by less than 100 million bushels in 20 of the last 32 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Clough, Malcolm, 1951. "Changes in Corn Acreage and Production After the Early Indications," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 3(4), pages 1-7, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersja:143506
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.143506
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    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2002. "An Evaluation Of Crop Forecast Accuracy For Corn And Soybeans: Usda And Private Information Services," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19068, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Helmberger, Peter G. & Campbell, Gerald R. & Dobson, William D., 1981. "PART IV. Organization and Performance of Agricultural Markets," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337229, january.

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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

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