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Differences Among Commodities in Real Price Variability and Drift

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  • Heifner, Richard G.
  • Kinoshita, Randal

Abstract

Many farm products exhibit price variabilities over over long time intervals that range between 10 and 20 percent when measured as standard deviations of annual rates of change. Price variability is notably higher for onions, rice, wool, oats, potatoes, grapefruit, and oranges, and lower for snap beans, tobacco, green peas, milk, broccoli, processing tomatoes, and strawberries. Price variability was higher during 1977-93 than during 1949-72 for grains, soybeans, and peanuts, lower for grapes, potatoes, processing tomatoes, and hogs, and about the same for other crops and livestock. Real prices fell between 1948 and 1993 for 29 of 30 commodities studied, with poultry, eggs, wool, snap beans, grains, and cotton exhibiting the largest rates of decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Heifner, Richard G. & Kinoshita, Randal, 1994. "Differences Among Commodities in Real Price Variability and Drift," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 45(3), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersja:137413
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.137413
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    Cited by:

    1. S. B. Akpan & E. J. Udoh & A. A. Umoren, 2012. "Modeling the Dynamic Relationship between Food Crop Output Volatility and Its Determinants in Nigeria," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 4(8), pages 1-36, June.
    2. Moledina, Amyaz A. & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Jordaan, Henry & Grove, Bennie & Jooste, Andre & Alemu, A.G., 2007. "Measuring the Price Volatility of Certain Field Crops in South Africa using the ARCH/GARCH Approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(3), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Schnepf, Randall D. & Goodwin, Barry K., 1999. "Long-Run Price Risk In U.S. Agricultural Markets," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21687, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Shankar, Rashmi & Trezzi, Riccardo, 2010. "Are commodity prices more volatile now ? a long-run perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5460, The World Bank.
    6. Matthew Kofi Ocran & Nicholas Biekpe, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Prices In Macroeconomic Policy In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 213-220, June.

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    Keywords

    Production Economics;

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