IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/stagec/196908.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Black Sea maize prices influence maize futures price discovery in Hungary? An analysis of the relationship between Hungarian and Black Sea maize prices

Author

Listed:
  • Potori, Norbert
  • Józsa, Mónika

Abstract

As the Black Sea Region (BSR) has recently emerged as a major world grain exporter region, this study assesses the possible influence of BSR maize prices on maize futures prices in Hungary. To measure the linear relationship between these prices the Pearson’s correlation was used, and to estimate their cointegration the Johansen test was performed for the period April 2011 to December 2013. Prices of Paris (MATIF) and Chicago (CBOT) maize futures were also included in the analysis for comparison. The results suggest that BSR maize prices had little or no influence on futures price discovery in Hungary during the period investigated. From this it can be concluded that (a) BSR supply and demand conditions bore negligible importance for market participants, and (b) Budapest Stock Exchange maize futures may not be efficient tools for hedging price risks associated with Hungarian maize exports to third countries where prices are derived from quotes at BSR seaports. On the other hand, MATIF maize futures prices had a measurable impact on the pricing of maize futures in Hungary, although this connection disappeared for the period April-December 2013. The same was true for CBOT maize futures prices which Hungarian maize futures prices were also cointegrated with in a revised 2012/2013 crop year (April-March). Some possible causes of the dis-association of these markets observed recently are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Potori, Norbert & Józsa, Mónika, 2014. "Do Black Sea maize prices influence maize futures price discovery in Hungary? An analysis of the relationship between Hungarian and Black Sea maize prices," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 116(3), pages 1-5, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:stagec:196908
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.196908
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/196908/files/08-1417.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.196908?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olson, Frayne & O’Brien, Daniel M., 2013. "Competitive Position and Price Integration of Black Sea Region Wheat," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150338, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Christopher B. Barrett & Jau Rong Li, 2002. "Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 292-307.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hamulczuk, Mariusz, 2020. "Spatial Integration of Agricultural Commodity Markets – Methodological Problems," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 311225, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    2. Growitsch Christian & Nepal Rabindra & Stronzik Marcus, 2015. "Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, February.
    3. Koprucu, Yilmaz & Tastan, Huseyin & Onel, Gulcan, 2024. "International Wheat Trade and Spatial Market Integration in the Black Sea Region," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 344055, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Schipfer, Fabian & Kranzl, Lukas & Olsson, Olle & Lamers, Patrick, 2020. "The European wood pellets for heating market - Price developments, trade and market efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Ma, Meilin & Delgado, Michael S. & Wang, H. Holly, 2024. "Risk, arbitrage, and spatial price relationships: Insights from China's hog market under the African Swine Fever," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Isaac Abunyuwah, 2020. "Modeling Market Integration and Asymmetric Price Transmission Dynamics of Yam Markets in Ghana," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(3), pages 23-31.
    7. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-28, April.
    8. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    9. Padilla-Bernal, Luz E. & Thilmany, Dawn D., 2003. "Price Relationships Among North American Fresh Tomato Markets: A Comparison Between Mexican And U.S. Markets," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-19.
    10. Jaramillo-Villanueva, J.L. & Sarker, R. & Cabas-Monje, J. & Portilla-Duran, L., 2018. "Vertical and Spatial Price Transmissi n in the Mexican and International Milk Market," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277283, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. MAMO, Yonas Abera & HAJI, Jema & LEGESSE, Belaineh & SASSI, Maria, 2021. "Challenges Of Agricultural Cooperatives And Their Impact On Profitability Of Potato Growers In Eastern Ethiopia," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 24(2), December.
    12. Justin V Hastings & Sarah G Phillips & David Ubilava & Andrey Vasnev, 2022. "Price Transmission in Conflict-Affected States: Evidence from Cereal Markets of Somalia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 31(3), pages 272-291.
    13. Hamulczuk, Mariusz & Makarchuk, Oksana & Sica, Edgardo, 2019. "Searching for market integration: Evidence from Ukrainian and European Union rapeseed markets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    14. Ritter, Matthias & Yang, Xinyue & Odening, Martin, 2017. "Spatial integration of agricultural land markets," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261430, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Sahito, Jam Ghulam Murtaza, 2015. "Market integration of wheat in Pakistan," Discussion Papers 72, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    16. César Salazar-Espinoza & Sam Jones, 2017. "The impact of infrastructure shocks on agricultural markets: Evidence from the Zambezi river in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-191, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Begum, Ismat Ara, 2012. "World and Bangladesh Rice Market Integration: An Application of Threshold Cointegration and Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM)," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 135119, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Fausti, Scott W. & Diersen, Matthew A., 2005. "Price Transparency in the Voluntary Price Reporting System for Live Cattle: Theory and Empirical Evidence from South Dakota," Economics Staff Papers 32027, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Aynur Pala, 2013. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 238-246.
    20. Isaac Abunyuwah & Henry De-Graft Acquah, 2013. "Modelling non-linear Spatial Market Integration and Equilibrium Processes in Hidden Markov Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(8), pages 535-545.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:stagec:196908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/akiiihu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.