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A balança comercial do agronegócio brasileiro de 1989 a 2005

Author

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  • Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo
  • Silva, Simone Fioritti

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the agribusiness contribution to Brazil’s trade balance. A new classification of the agribusiness trade balance was proposed and used to analyze the aspects of the exported products –agricultural products, products of animal origin, industriali- zed foods and imported inputs – represented by fertilizers. Imports and exports vector autoregression models were used to explain the behavior of these variables. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness – product of the exchange rate by the international prices – boosts immediately the exports of non processed agricultural products by 1.71%, stabilizing at 2% after some trimesters. The attractiveness explains 60 to 74% of the forecast error variances of these exportats. It is noted that an ex- change rate devaluation stimulates more the exports of products than it does the fertilizer imports. Besides, an increase of 1% of the GDP has an expressive impact (converging into -1.7%) on agricultural products exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo & Silva, Simone Fioritti, 2008. "A balança comercial do agronegócio brasileiro de 1989 a 2005," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 46(4), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:revi24:341765
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.341765
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