Práticas Intervencionistas e Seus Efeitos sobre o Comércio Internacional de Soja: uma análise a partir de um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável e da Teoria dos Jogos

The objective of this study was to analyze the bilateral trade between Brazil and the main actors in international commercialization of soybeans – Argentina, the United States and China – aiming to verify how the practice of certain intervention actions influence the trade dynamics of this commodity. In this sense, scenarios were simulated based on the commercial practices adopted by these countries, and the equilibrium results were obtained through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and analyzed on the basis of Game Theory. These results were used to construct the matrix of payoffs, associated to the commercial strategies of countries considered as players. The results showed that policies to encourage production are effective ways for governments to make countries more competitive and to obtain commercial gains from or in conjunction with others. It was noted that China could become a major competitor among the soybean exporters, depending on the policy adopted by the government and by Chinese institutions. It was concluded that market access is the main source of trade gains for the products of soybean complex, and that the elimination of tariffs on imports of these products brings significant gains to Brazil, the United States and to Argentina, as well as ways to subsidize production and/or exports.