IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/revi24/340907.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comportamento dos preços de manga Palmer ao produtor do Vale do Submédio São Francisco

Author

Listed:
  • Souza, Ana Cledia Ferreira de
  • Lima, João Ricardo Ferreira de

Abstract

This paper, has as main objective, to verify the components of trend, seasonality and volatility, of the price of the mango paid to the producer of Vale do Submédio São Francisco. In addition, a study is also carried out to forecast future mango prices for the next 18 weeks over the study period. For this purpose, data obtained from the CEPEA / USP website, corresponding to the period from the first week of 2012 to the thirty-fourth week of 2020, were used. The results point to a positive trend and seasonality with periods of 12 and 28 weeks. Palmer mango prices show conditional volatility, with more pronounced fluctuations from the year 2016 onwards. The series was modeled by a SARIMA (1.1.0) x (0.0.1) 52 for the price forecast. According to the absolute mean error and the average percentage error, the model has a good fit.

Suggested Citation

  • Souza, Ana Cledia Ferreira de & Lima, João Ricardo Ferreira de, 2023. "Comportamento dos preços de manga Palmer ao produtor do Vale do Submédio São Francisco," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 61(1), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:revi24:340907
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.340907
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/340907/files/Ana%20Cledia%20Ferreira%20de%20Souza.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.340907?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:revi24:340907. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inrapfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.