Avaliação Espacial Das Fontes De Crescimento De Um Conjunto De Commodities Agrícolas Brasileiras Exportáveis Entre 2003-2013

Brazil is one of the major agricultural commodities exporter, especially soybeans, wheat, corn, cotton, sugar cane, orange and coffee. Given the importance of international trade for economic growth, it is important to perform a spatial and temporal assessment of the growth sources of these agricultural commodities, which in this study was made by the shift-share model and ESDA. The results show us the importance of Area Effect and Productivity Effect for the studied cultures, which brought evidence of the existence of a land expansion process and productivity improvement for these cultures. In terms of regional results, it was possible to highlight two interesting movements : a) more intense positive changes in the production of Northern states; and b) growth process of production maintenance in the Midwest states. Moreover, from the ESDA, it was possible to evaluate the formation of clusters and determine that there is a dichotomy between the Midwest (High-High cluster) and the Northeast (Low-Low cluster) regarding the Area Effect. That is, it became clear that the Midwest region, for the studied commodities, is still an area of expansion of the agricultural area.