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Modelo de Análise da Oferta de Exportação de Milho Brasileira: 2001 a 2012

Author

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  • Favro, Jackelline
  • Caldarelli, Carlos Eduardo
  • Camara, Marcia Regina Gabardo da

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the corn export supply function for Brazil from 2001 to 2012. For this analysis we developed a theoretical model estimated using the cointegration and vector error correction model (VEC). The variables used were: corn exports, international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP. The results obtained showed the existence of long-term relationship between the variables. The international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP had a significant impact on corn exports, showing signs as expected by the theoretical model. There was a positive impact on corn exports after an unanticipated shock in the soybean price and negative impact after a not anticipated shock the slaughter of poultry. In relation to the international price, it was found that a shock in this variable has a negative impact on corn exports. In order to assess the relationships between the domestic price and the international price of corn, there was the weak exogeneity test between the variables and it was found that, despite this market still does not have the Law of One Price, changes in the international corn price affect the domestic price.

Suggested Citation

  • Favro, Jackelline & Caldarelli, Carlos Eduardo & Camara, Marcia Regina Gabardo da, 2015. "Modelo de Análise da Oferta de Exportação de Milho Brasileira: 2001 a 2012," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 53(3), pages 1-22, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:rdecag:232030
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.232030
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva & Mateus Batistella & Yue Dou & Emilio Moran & Sara McMillan Torres & Jianguo Liu, 2017. "The Sino-Brazilian Telecoupled Soybean System and Cascading Effects for the Exporting Country," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, August.

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    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

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